Simulation modelling for evaluation of a solvency of JSC “SWF”Samuryk-Kazyna”

1. Simulation modelling for evaluation of a solvency of JSC “SWF”Samuryk-Kazyna”

SIMULATION MODELLING FOR
EVALUATION OF A SOLVENCY
OF JSC “SWF”SAMURYKKAZYNA”

2. Purpose:

PURPOSE:
The aim of this thesis – is to analyze if the JSC
“SWF “Samuryk-Kazyna” is solvent or not and
illustrate if a company will be financial stable in the
near future.
Main tasks of this thesis is to analyze the liquidity,
solvency, structure of revenues and expenses and
simulation modelling.

3. Liquidity ratios:

LIQUIDITY RATIOS:
N
a
m
e
Lg
Lc
Lc
Li
Li
2013
2014
2015
(9 month)
Chan
ge
(%)
20142013
Ch
ang
e
(%)
201
5201
4
Cha
nge
(%)
2015
2013
1
18,4 18,4
1,27
1,27
16,4 17,8
16,4 17,8
39,4
39,4
(5,6)
(5,6) 31,6
31,6

4.

Liquidity
2013
2014
2015
2.5
2
1.5
2.06
1.75
1.74
1.85
1.58
1.6
1
0.5
0.36
0
General liquidity
Intermadiary liquidity
0.53
0.5
Immediate liquidity

5. Solvency ratios:

SOLVENCY RATIOS:
2015
(9 months)
Change
(%)
20142013
Change
(%)
20152014
Change
(%)
20152013
2014
2013
RSG
(0,5)
6,7
RSE
(4,2)
1
RSF
(20)
(3,67)
6,1
(4,2)
(22,9)

6.

Solvency
4
3.53.4
3
2.72
2.5
2
1.96
2.62
2.08
1.95
1.5
1
0.96
0.92
0.92
2014
2015
0.5
0
2013
The global solvency
The economic solvency
The financial solvency

7.

2013
2014
2015
Chang
e, in %
Structure
1.Revenue on sales and
interest income
2. Government grants:
Income
Expenses
3. Finance income
4. Share in profit of joint
ventures and associates
1.Cost of sales
2.General and administrative
expenses
3. Transportation and selling
expenses
4. Impairment loss
5. Finance expenses
6. Income tax expenses
(20142013)
value
value
value
4 978 772
28,966
5 106 498
31,192
2,394,895
83,902
129,369
-
54,1
546,340
457,115
123,967
(15,87)
3,602,383
3 795 760
1,811,347
6,1
362 008
376 874
167,739
5,2
347,457
374,977
121,508
7,9
152,829
455,785
230,746
259,054
288,107
186,024
-
19,251
100
157,788
80,141
3,08
7,68
198
24,8
-28

8.

Samuryk-Kazyna
2017
REVENUES
Change - 7%
EXPENSES
5 897 155 mln
(KZT)
5 313 270 mln
(KZT)
583 885 mln (KZT)
-
Real GDP growth rate – 6.8%
Inflation – 6-8%
Exchange rate KZTto USD – 502,91
World Brent oil price – 80
Investment projects – 386,9mln KZT
Borrowings from external resources – 462,6 mln KZT
Taxation laws and economic situation in KZ
mln KZT
4767370-5198172=
-430802
Change +7%