NPV va rentabellik ko'rsatkichlari. 8 - mavzu

1.

8 - Mavzu: NPV va rentabellik
ko'rsatkichlari
O’qituvchi: PhD. Ziyodilloyev Xushnud
Email: [email protected]
Tel: +998-99-931-74-42

2.

Reja:
Investitsiyalari loyihalari samadorligini baholash usullari
Investitsiya loyihalarida pul oqimlari tahlili
Investitsiyalaning samaradorligini diskontlash usullari asosida
baholash.

3.

4.

Investitsiya loyihasi samaradorligini baholash

5.

Investitsion samaradorlik turlari
Investitsiyalarning –
moliyaviy (tijorat),
byudjet va
iqtisodiy samaradorligi mavjud

6.

Investitsion samaradorlik turlari
Savdo (tijorat) – loyihaning, investorlarning investitsion
jozibadorligini va uning moliyaviy imkoniyatlarini tavsiflaydi.
Byudjet - loyihaning federal, mintaqaviy yoki mahalliy
byudjetlar uchun moliyaviy ta'sirini ko'rsatadi.

7.

Investitsion samaradorlik turlari
Iqtisodiy - investitsion loyiha ishtirokchilarining qiymat
jihatidan ifodalanishi mumkin bo'lgan to'g'ridan-to'g'ri
manfaatlaridan tashqaridagi barcha xarajatlar hisobga
olinadi va ularni natijalar bilan muvofiqlashtiradi.

8.

Iqtisodiy baholash koeffitsientilari
sof keltirilgan qiymat (Net Present Value, NPV),
investitsiya rentabelligi indeksi (Profitability Index, PI),
foydaning ichki me’yori (Internal Rate of Return, IRR),
investitsiya diskontlangan qoplash muddati (Discounted
Payback Period, DPP)

9.

Investitsion samaradorlik
Investitsiya loyihalarining tijorat samaradorligini aniqlash har xil
davrlarda Real pullarning oqimi va Real pullarining saldosidan
tashkil topadi.
Bunday holatda investorning 3 holati ko’rib chiqiladi va
hisobga olinadi.
- investitsion
- operatsion
- moliyaviy

10.

Real pul oqimi
Investitsiya loyihalarni amalga oshirish vaqtidagi
investitsion va operatsion faoliyatlar davomidagi kelib
tushadigan va ishlatiladigan mablag’lar,
Real pul oqimi Investitsion loyihani davrlari
(qadamlari) davomidagi har xil turdagi daromad va
xarajatlardan tashkil topadi,

11.

Real pul saldosi
Investitsiya
loyihalarini amalga oshirish vaqtida
uchta faoliyat davomidagi kelib tushadigan va
ishlatilgan mablag’lar.
Investitsion
loyihalarni qabul qilishning asosiy
sharti – real pul saldosi ijobiy bo’lishidir.

12.

NPV
NPV -
deganda daromad va investitsiya ko'rsatkichlarining
bir vaqtning o'zida chegirilgan farqi tushuniladi.
Agar daromadlar va investitsiyalar daromadlar oqimi
ko'rinishida taqdim etilsa, NPV ushbu oqimning bazasi
yoki joriy qiymatiga teng bo'ladi.

13.

Keyingi bosqichda foyda keltiradigan loyihalar uchun,
investitsiyalarni dastlabki investitsiyalarga nisbatan
uzoq muddatli foydalanish hisobiga daromadlar
ko'payadi va
aksincha, foydali loyihani ishga tushirishning dastlabki
bosqichida kompaniya investitsiyalardan to'liq
daromad olishga erisha olmaydi.

14.

Key point
Boshlang'ich sarmoyalar uzoqroq ishlash davrida ko'proq
daromad keltirishi mumkin.
Bundan tashqari, barcha loyihalarni bir xil ish davridagi
taqqoslashda taqqoslab bo'lmaydi.
Qisqa hayot sikliga ega bo'lgan sarmoyalar uzoqroq
kiritilgan investitsiyalarga nisbatan muddatidan oldin
to'lanishi kerak.
Aks holda, ularning qisqa umri davomida yetarlicha foyda
olishga vaqtlari bo'lmaydi

15.

sof joriy qiymatni hisoblash - NPV
sof joriy qiymatni hisoblash usuli boshlang'ich (sof)
investitsiya qiymatini taqqoslashga asoslangan ( Ci )
prognoz qilingan davrda hosil bo'lgan diskontlangan sof
naqd pul tushumlarining umumiy summasi
Naqd pul tushumlari vaqt o'tishi bilan taqsimlanganligi
sababli ular diskontlash stavkasidan foydalangan holda
diskontlanadi r, investor tomonidan qo'yilgan kapitalning
yillik daromadiga qarab mustaqil ravishda investor
tomonidan belgilanadi.

16.

sof joriy qiymatni hisoblash - NPV

17.

NPV ijobiy Agar investitsiya loyihasining NPV ijobiy bo'lsa (chegirma
stavkasi hisobga olinsa), u holda loyiha samarali
hisoblanadi va uni amalga oshirish masalasi ko'rib
chiqilishi mumkin;
Bundan tashqari, NPV qiymati qanchalik yuqori bo'lsa,
loyiha shunchalik foydali bo'ladi

18.

Payback Period
PP= Initial investment/cash flow per year
Example: Project A’s initial investment is $100,000. Expected return is
$25,000 each year. PP(A) = 100,000/25,000 = 4 years
Project B’s initial investment is $200,000. Expected return is $40,000
each year. PP(B) = 200,000/40,000 = 5 years.

19.

Payback Period
PP= Initial investment/cash flow per year
B
PP =
A +
C
A is the last period with a negative cumulative cash flow;
B is the absolute value of cumulative cash flow at the end of the
period A;
C is the total cash flow during the period after A

20.

Activity for Class
PP = A +
PP = 4 +
B
C
18
20
Year
Cash flow
Cumulative
Cashflow
0
($105)
($105)
1
$25
($80)
2
$30
($50)
3
$15
($35)
4
$17
($18)
5
$20
$2
6
$30
$32
7
$40
$72
PP= 4.9 years

21.

Accounting Rate of Return
daromadlilik darajasi
ARR =Average annual profits/Initial investment
Example - Dastlabki sarmoya 100 000 dollarga teng.
Kutilgan (o'rtacha) yillik foyda - 15000 dollar.
ARR = 15,000/100,000 = 0.15 or 15%

22.

Activity for Class
Shoes For You kompaniyasi, u yangi loyihaga sarmoya kiritish
kerakligini aniqlaydi.
Shoes for You's yangi mahsulotini ishlab chiqish uchun 500 ming
dollar sarmoya kiritadi.
Kompaniyaning hisob - kitoblariga ko'ra, birinchi yilning sof
daromadi 50 ming dollar, ikkinchi yilining daromadi - 100 ming
dollar, uchinchi yilining daromadi - 150 ming dollar, to'rtinchi
yilining daromadi - 300 ming dollar.
ARR=?

23.

Accounting Rate of Return
ARR =Average annual profits/Initial investment
ARR =$150 000/$500 000 = 0.3 = 30%

24.

rentabellik ko'rsatkichlari
rentabellik ko'rsatkichlari loyihaga kiritilgan investitsiyalar-
ning qaytarilishini (nisbiy) tavsiflaydi. Ular diskontlangan va
diskontlanmagan pul oqimlari uchun ham hisoblanishi
mumkin.
Investitsiyalar daromadliligi indeksi (ID) - operatsion
faoliyatdan pul oqimi elementlari summasining investitsion
faoliyatdan keladigan pul oqimi elementlari summasining
mutlaq qiymatiga nisbati.

25.

rentabellik indeksi
rentabellik indeksi diskontlangan. Investitsiyaviy loyihalar
samaradorligini baholash bo'yicha qo'llanmaga binoan :
investitsiya indeksining (IDI) diskontlangan foydasi - bu
operatsion faoliyatdan tushgan pul oqimlari moddalarining
diskontlangan miqdorining investitsiya faoliyatidan
tushadigan tushum miqdorining mutlaq qiymatiga nisbati.

26.

27.

Discounted cash flow
• Ignores cash flows received after the discounted payback
period.
+ including
interest rate
A positive NPV indicates that the projected earnings generated by a
project exceeds the anticipated costs.
Generally, an investment with a positive NPV will be a profitable
one and one with a negative NPV will result in a net loss.

28.

NPV example
Kerakli daromad darajasi 15%, inflyatsiya darajasi yiliga 3%, pul oqimi 8 yil
davomida yiliga 25 000 dollarni tashkil qiladi. Dastlabki investitsiyalar 100 000
dollarni tashkil qiladi. NPV nima?
Year
Cash flow
Present Value
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
($100,000)
$25,000
$25,000
$25,000
$25,000
$25,000
$25,000
$25,000
$25,000
($100,000)
$ 21,186.44
$ 17,954.61
$ 15,215.77
$12,894.72
$ 10,927.73
$9,260.79
$ 7,848.13
$ 6,650.95
$1,939.14
1.18
1.39
1.64
1.94
2.29
2.70
3.19
3.76
NPV
Positive NPV

29.

Activity for Class
Consider company Shoes For You's who is determining whether they
should invest in a new project. Shoes for You's will expect to invest
$500,000 for the development of their new product. The company
estimates that the first year cash flow will be $200,000, the second year
cash flow will be $300,000, and the third year cash flow to be $200,000.
The expected return of 10% is used as the discount rate.
Year
Cash flow
Present Value
0
($500,000)
($500,000)
1
$200,000
1.10
$181,818.18
2
$300,000
1.21
$247,933.88
3
$200,000
1.33
$150,262.96
$80,015
NPV

30.

Profitability Index
Profitability index (or Present Value Index) - is an index that
attempts to identify the relationship between the costs and benefits
of a proposed project through the use of a ratio calculated as:
PI = PV of Future Cash Flows ÷ Initial Investment.
A ratio of 1.0 is the lowest acceptable measure on the
index.
Any value lower than 1.0 would indicate that the
project's PV is less than the initial investment.
As values on the PI increase, so does the financial
attractiveness of the proposed project.

31.

Profitability Index Example
Required rate of return of 15%, inflation rate of 3% per year, cash inflow
is $25,000 per year for 8 years. Initial investment is $100,000.
PI = PV of Future Cash Flows ÷ Initial Investment.
What do we already know from this
example?
or
PI = $101,939.14 ÷
$100000
PI = 1.02

32.

Activity for Class
Consider company Shoes For You's who is determining whether they
should invest in a new project. Shoes for You's will expect to invest
$500,000 for the development of their new product. The company
estimates that the first year cash flow will be $200,000, the second year
cash flow will be $300,000, and the third year cash flow to be $200,000.
The expected return of 10% is used as the discount rate.
PI = PV of Future Cash Flows ÷ Initial Investment.
PI = (181 818+247 933+150 262)÷ 5000000
PI = 1.16

33.

Checklist Model

34.

Scoring Model

35.

Qimmatli qog‘ozlar daromadliligi solishtirmasi (%)
Qaytarish muddati 1 yildan dan 10 yilgacha bo‘lgan
AQSH G‘aznachiligi obligatsiyalari
Qaytarish muddati 10 yildan yuqori bo‘lgan AQSH
G‘aznachiligi obligatsiyalari
5,70
6,21
Qaytarish muddati 1 yildan 10 yilgacha bo‘lgan
korporativ obligatsiyalar:
Yuqori sifatdagi
6,45
O‘rtacha sifatdagi
6,94
Qaytarish muddat 10
korporativ obligatsiyalar:
Yuqori sifatdagi
O‘rtacha sifatdagi
yildan
yuqori
bo‘lgan
7,09
7,56

36.

Dunyodagi asosiy fond indekslari
Mamlakatlar
AQSh
Yaponiya
Buyuk Britaniya
Germaniya
Fransiya
Shveysariya
Yevropa, Avstraliya,
Uzoq Sharq
Indekslar
Dow Jones Index,
Standard & Poor's 500
Nikkei, Topix
FT-30, FT-100
DAX
CAC 40
Credit Suisse
MSCI, EAFE

37.

Misol.
Investitsiya
qilingan
kapitalning
daromadlilik darajasini hisoblab ko‘rish uchun,
faraz qilaylik, Siz aksiyalarni bir donasini 10,0
ming so‘mdan sotib oldingiz. Bir kundan keyin
mazkur aksiyalarning kursi 10,1 ming so‘mga o‘sdi
va Siz ularni sotdingiz. Bir kunda Sizning qo‘yilgan
kapital daromadlilik stavkangiz 1% ni tashkil
etadi. Bu ko`rsatkich bir dona aksiyaga kapitalning
o‘sish ko‘rsatkichi 100 so‘mning sotib olingan
aksiya narxiga 10,0 ming so‘m nisbati orqali
aniqlanadi. Endi tasavvur qiling, Siz sotib olingan
aksiyalarga bir yil davomida egalik qilmoqdasiz.
Yil oxirida aksiyalar bo‘yicha bir aksiyaga 500
so‘m miqdoridagi dividend to‘landi va aksiyaning
bahosi 10,5 ming so‘m bo‘ldi.

38.

Shunday qilib, bir yillik qo‘yilgan kapital daromadliligi (Kd),
quyidagini tashkil etdi:
Kd = (ABdo - ABb + PD) : Abb
Bu yerda: Kd – bir yillik qo‘yilgan kapital daromadliligi;
ABdo – davr oxiridagi aksiya bahosi;
ABb – aksiyaning boshlang‘ich narxi;
PD – pulli dividendlar.
Ushbu misolda biz quyidagi daromadlilikka ega bo‘lamiz:
Kd = (10,5 ming so‘m - 10,0 ming so‘m + 0,5 ming so‘m)
: 10,0 ming so‘m = 0,10 = 10%
E’tibor bering, qo‘yilgan kapital umumiy daromadini quyidagi
komponentlar yig‘indisi sifatida ko‘rish mumkin: dividend
ko‘rinishidagi daromad va aksiyalar bahosining o‘zgarishi:
Kd = (PD : ABb) + (ABdo - ABb) : ABb
Kd =DDk + BO‘k
Bu yerda: DDk - dividend daromadi komponenti;
BO‘k - baholar o‘zgarishi komponenti.
Kd = 5% +5% = 10%

39.

Daromadlilikning real stavkasi, nominal foiz
stavkasi va inflyatsiya darajasining nisbati aks
etgan formula quyidagi ko‘rinishga ega:
1 + Drs = (1 + Nfs) : (1 + Id)
yoki, mos ravishda,
Drs = (Nfs - Id) : (1 + Id)
Bu yerda: Drs –daromadlilikning real
stavkasi;
Nfs – nominal foiz stavkasi;
Id - inflyatsiya darajasi.