New Hampshire Outlook

1. New Hampshire Outlook

Rachel J. Roginsky, ISHC
Matthew R. Arrants
Pinnacle Advisory Group
76 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917
[email protected]
[email protected]
New Hampshire Outlook
Pinnacle Realty Investments
Pinnacle Advisory Group

2. Total United States Room Supply/Demand Percent Change 12 Month Moving Average To August 2003

6
4
2
0
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
-2
-4
-6
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003

3. Total United States Occupancy / ADR Percent Change 12 Month Moving Average To August 2003

8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
Occ % Change
ADR % Change
-6
-8
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003

4. Total United States Occupancy and ADR 12 Month Moving Average To August 2003

90
85
Peak $86.64
July 2001
Occupancy (%)
ADR ($)
80
$82.70
Aug 2002
75
70
$83.13
Aug 2003
58.5 %
Aug 2002
65
60
Peak
65.2%
55
58.9%
Aug 2003
50
1996
1997
1998
Source: Smith Travel Research
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003

5. Total U.S. Monthly Occupancy Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003

70
65
60
55
Prior 12 Months
50
Current 12 Months
45
40
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Source: Smith Travel Research
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug

6. Total U.S. Monthly ADR Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003

90
85
80
Prior 12 Months
Current 12 Months
75
Source: Smith Travel Research

7. Total U.S. Monthly RevPar Year-Over-Year Aug 2001 – Aug 2003

60
55
50
45
Prior 12 Months
40
Current 12 Months
35
30
Jul
Aug Sep
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Source: Smith Travel Research
Apr May Jun
Jul
Aug

8. Total U.S. Daily Occupancy* Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003

80%
2000
2001
2002
2003
75%
70%
72.4%
70.6%
69.3%
67.5%
65%
64.5%
62.0%
61.2%
60%
55%
50%
Weekday
* Excluding Sunday
Weekend
68.9%

9. Total U.S. Average Daily Room Revenue (M) Sep 13 YTD 2000 - 2003

In Millions
270
260
2000
2001
2002
2003
$260.3
$258.6
$254.6
$251.1
250
240
$245.4
$240.0
230
$230.5
$228.4
220
210
Weekday
* Excluding Sunday
Weekend

10. Total United States Supply/Demand Percent Change 1998 – 2004P

5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
3.9
3.8
2.8
3
3.5
2.8
3.5
2.3
1.7
1.4
2
1.4
0.6
Supply % Chg
Demand % Chg
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
-3.5
2001
2002
2003P
2004P

11. Total United States Occupancy Percent 1998 – 2004P

70
65
63.4
62.9
63.3
59.7
60
60.6
59.1
59.4
2002
2003P
55
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2004P

12. Total United States ADR Percent Change 1998 – 2004P

10
5
4.6
5.5
3.8
2
0.4
0
-1
-1.5
-5
1998
1999
Source: Smith Travel Research
2000
2001
2002
2003P
2004P

13. Total U.S. Estimated ADR Change Impact of 3rd Party Intermediaries

7%
6%
5.5%
5.8%
Reported
5%
Estimated
4%
3%
2.0%
2%
2.5%
0.8%
0.4%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-0.8%
-1.5%
2001
2002
-3%
2000
2003*
2004*

14. Total U.S. Estimated Lost Room Revenue 3rd Party Intermediaries

In Millions
1,500
$1,284.1
1,300
1,100
$872.3
900
700
500
300
$375.0
$200.5
100
2000
2001
2002
2003*

15. New England Lodging Market

16. New England Occupancy - 2002

80.0%
67.1%
70.0%
62.2%
60.1%
60.0%
57.7%
60.2%
55.7%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New Hampshire
Maine

17. New England Average Daily Rate – 2002

$120.0
$100.0
$112.55
$111.34
$94.16
$90.92
$84.75
$79.05
$80.0
$60.0
$40.0
$20.0
$0.0
Connecticut
Rhode Island Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New
Hampshire
Maine

18. New England RevPAR – 2002

$80.0
$75.52
$66.92
$70.0
$60.0
$56.55
$54.33
$51.02
$50.0
$44.03
$40.0
$30.0
$20.0
$10.0
$0.0
Connecticut
Rhode Island
Massachusetts
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Vermont
New
Hampshire
Maine

19. New England Change in Performance - 2002

2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Occupancy
-4.0%
Avg Rate
RevPAR
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group

20. New England Change in Performance – YTD August 2003

6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
Occupancy
-2.0%
Avg Rate
-4.0%
RevPAR
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group

21. New Hampshire Lodging Market

22. Year-to-date Occupancy – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average

80.0%
71.0%
68.9%
70.0%
63.1%
60.0%
54.4%
50.0%
40.0%
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord

23. Year-to-date Average Rate – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average

$120.0
$105.00
$100.0
$91.01
$79.59
$81.04
$80.0
$60.0
$40.0
$20.0
$0.0
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord

24. Year-to-date RevPAR – August Major Markets vs. Statewide Average

$80.0
$74.55
$70.0
$60.0
$50.0
$57.43
$54.84
Manchester
Concord
$44.09
$40.0
$30.0
$20.0
$10.0
$0.0
Portsmouth
Nashua
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group

25. Change In Performance by Market YTD Aug 2003

6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
Portsmouth
Nashua
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
Manchester
Concord
Occupancy
Avg Rate
RevPAR

26. Portsmouth Lodging Market

27. Portsmouth Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)

80%
75%
75%
76%
71%
70%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003

28. Portsmouth Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)

$106.00
$105.00
$105.00
$104.00
$103.00
$102.00
$101.00
$101.00
$101.00
2001
2002
$100.00
$99.00
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2003

29. Portsmouth Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)

$76.76
$77.00
$76.50
$76.00
$75.75
$75.50
$75.00
$74.55
$74.50
$74.00
$73.50
$73.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003

30. Portsmouth - Factors Affecting Market Performance

Lack of Scandals (Cabletron/Tyco)
New Supply
– Wentworth
– 2 Hotels in Zoning
– Developer Interest
Improving economy?
Cautious Optimism

31. Nashua / Merrimack Lodging Market

32. Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)

65%
62%
60%
55%
55%
54%
2002
2003
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group

33. Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)

$88.00
$87.00
$87.01
$86.00
$85.00
$84.00
$83.29
$83.00
$82.00
$81.04
$81.00
$80.00
$79.00
$78.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003

34. Nashua / Merrimack Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)

$60.00
$53.95
$50.00
$45.81
$44.09
2002
2003
$40.00
$30.00
$20.00
$10.00
$2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group

35. Nashua - Factors Affecting Market Performance

Improving Business Travel
Increases in Group Demand
No New Supply
Cautious Optimism

36. Manchester Lodging Market

37. Manchester Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)

75%
71%
68%
70%
63%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003

38. Manchester Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)

$94.00
$93.57
$93.50
$93.00
$92.50
$91.76
$92.00
$91.50
$91.01
$91.00
$90.50
$90.00
$89.50
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003

39. Manchester Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)

$68.00
$66.53
$66.00
$64.00
$62.58
$62.00
$60.00
$57.43
$58.00
$56.00
$54.00
$52.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003

40. Manchester - Factors Affecting Market Performance

New Supply
New Supply
New Supply

41. Manchester – New Supply

Springhill Suites – 3/02
Holiday Express – 3/03
Hampton Inn and Suites – 10/03
Homewood Suites – 10/03
Residence Inn - 2005?
Hilton Garden Inn – 2005?

42. Concord Lodging Market

43. Concord Year To Date Occupancy (Aug)

75%
70%
72%
69%
69%
65%
60%
55%
50%
45%
40%
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003

44. Concord Year To Date Avg. Rate (Aug)

$80.00
$79.59
$79.50
$79.00
$78.50
$78.00
$77.50
$77.32
$77.23
2001
2002
$77.00
$76.50
$76.00
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2003

45. Concord Year To Date RevPAR (Aug)

$56.00
$55.53
$55.50
$54.84
$55.00
$54.50
$54.00
$53.51
$53.50
$53.00
$52.50
$52.00
2001
Source: Smith Travel Research /
Pinnacle Advisory Group
2002
2003

46. Concord - Factors Affecting Market Performance

No New Supply
Changes at the Hampton Inn Bow
Departure of Allegro
Some Modest Growth

47. White Mountains and Lakes Region

48. White Mountains and Lakes Region – Market Performance

Rates are Up Occupancy is down
Overall, markets are relatively flat but
there are winners and losers
Short Booking Window
Shorter Lengths of Stay
Outlook for corporate and tour
groups looks good for 2004

49. Conclusion / Summary

Signs are positive for Most Markets
Group Pace for 04 is ahead of 03
More Stable Geopolitical Situation
Improving Economy
Overall – Cautious Optimism

50. 2004 Projections*

White Mountains and Lakes Region
– Occupancy up 3 Points
– Rates up 2 Percent
Portsmouth
– Occupancy up 1 point
– Rates up 3 percent
Nashua - Merrimack
– Occupancy up 2 points
– Rates up 2 percent
Manchester
– Occupancy down 2 points
– Rates Flat
Concord
– Occupancy up 2 points
– Rates up 2 percent
*(Do not reflect impact of

51. New Hampshire Outlook

Rachel J. Roginsky
Matthew R. Arrants
Pinnacle Advisory Group
76 Canal Street
Boston, MA 02114
Telephone: 617-722-9916 Fax: 617-722-9917
[email protected]
[email protected]
New Hampshire Outlook
Pinnacle Realty Investments
Pinnacle Advisory Group