Future of Iranian nuclear program

1.

Future of Iranian
nuclear program
Vladimir Orlov
President
PIR Center

2.

Where are we at the
moment?
June 14, 2013
Presidential elections in Iran
September 5, 2013
Iranian Foreign Ministry is put in
charge of nuclear negotiations
November 20 – 24, 2013
Geneva talks
«Joint Plan of Action»
January 12, 2014
Clarification of technical issues
January 20, 2014
Interim agreement comes into force

3.

Iranian nuclear program:
what Iran needs?
State security and
minimization of the
risk of military
conflicts
Technological progress
and self-sufficiency
Internal political
stability
Expansion, becoming
regional superpower
and leader of all of the
Muslim population in
the Middle East

4.

Arak
Iranian Nuclear
Program

5.

March 16-17, 2013 Strategic
Studies Network task force
Draft agreement on
the Iranian nuclear
program
Phased reciprocal
sequencing chart

6.

1st scenario: «Moving forward»
Multilateral format: Iran and P5 +1
reach the comprehensive agreement
Regional format: Confidence
building measures with the Gulf
states and across the Middle East
Russia-Iran: Second reactor of the
Bushehr NPP, military-technical
cooperation, Vladimir Putin visits Tehran

7.

2nd scenario: «Moving
backward»
Multilateral format: Iran disrupts the
negotiations with P5+1
Regional format: Destabilization of
the situation in the Gulf and across
the Middle East. Escalating
confrontation between Iran and its
neighbors
Russia-Iran: Moscow is studying the
options for joining new international
sanctions

8.

3rd scenario : «Muddling
through»
Multilateral format: Iran and P5 +1 reach
the comprehensive agreement but it
remains unstable, Western powers blame
Iran for noncompliance
Regional format: Tensions in the
Gulf and across the Middle East
Russia-Iran: Second reactor of the
Bushehr NPP, military-technical
cooperation, Vladimir Putin visits Tehran

9.

What should we be
following?
Heavy water reactor in Arak
Levels of uranium enrichment
Additional protocol to the IAEA
subsidiary agreement
Missile program