Ukrainian Crisis: Views in NATO, Russia and Ukraine

1. Ukrainian Crisis: Views in NATO, Russia and Ukraine

Bruce Stokes
Katie Simmons
Director, Global Economic Attitudes
Associate Director, Research

2. Pew Research Center

Established 1996
Funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts
Non-profit, non-partisan fact tank in Washington
Survey topics: U.S. domestic politics and economic conditions, values, U.S.
image abroad, global views toward major powers, terrorism, democracy, country
conditions, aging, economy
Since 2002, we have surveyed in 82 countries, surveying in 40 nations in 2015
www.pewresearch.org
June 7, 2019
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3. Methodology

Surveys conducted across eight NATO member countries as well as
Russia and Ukraine from April 6, 2015 to May 15, 2015 totaling
11,116 respondents
Based on nationally representative telephone interviews in Canada,
France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom & the United States and
face-to-face interviews in Italy, Poland, Russia & Ukraine conducted
under the direction of Princeton Survey Research Associates
International. The survey in Ukraine excludes Luhans’k, Donets’k and
Crimea.
The margin of sampling error for the complete set of weighted data is
±2.8% - ±4.1%
June 7, 2019
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4. KEY TAKEAWAYS

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5. European NATO Members Reluctant to Use Force to Defend Allies

If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally,
do you think our country should use military force to defend that country?
56%
U.S.
53
Canada
48
EU median
Note: EU median includes France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the UK.
June 7, 2019
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6. Russians Express Growing Pride in Russia, Confidence in Putin in International Affairs

100 %
Start of unrest
in Ukraine
66
A lot of confidence in Putin
52
47
63
51
42
46
37
Very favorable view of Russia
0
2007
June 7, 2019
2009
29
2011
www.pewresearch.org
2013
2015
6

7. Ukrainians Want Donbas to Remain Part of Ukraine; Russians Want It to Secede

Thinking about the future of the Luhans’k and Donets’k regions, would you prefer that they …
11%
Remain part of Ukraine on
same terms as before crisis
21
Remain part of Ukraine with
greater autonomy from Kyiv
35
Become independent states
24
4
2
10
Become part of Russia
10
Don't know
Ukraine
Russia
51%
33
Note: In Russia, question read “Thinking about the future of the self-declared republics of Luhans’k and Donets’k ...”
June 7, 2019
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8. NATO VIEWS

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9. Poland Most Worried about Russian Military Threat

How much of a military threat, if at all, is Russia to its neighboring countries, aside from Ukraine?
Major threat
Minor threat
Not a threat
Poland
70%
UK
53
France
Germany
June 7, 2019
8
38
44
10
34
38
15
48
U.S.
Canada
7
40
49
Italy
4%
36
51
Spain
19%
59
44
www.pewresearch.org
13
33
42
4
8
9

10. Many NATO Members Oppose Supplying Ukraine with Arms Against Russia

In response to the situation involving Russia and Ukraine, do you __ NATO sending arms to the Ukrainian gov’t?
Oppose
Poland
36%
U.S.
44
45
France
42
59
Spain
66
Italy
65
June 7, 2019
46
41
UK
MEDIAN
MEDIAN
50%
43
Canada
Germany
Support
40
25
22
77
19
52
41
www.pewresearch.org
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11. Key NATO Countries Reluctant to Use Force to Defend Allies

If Russia got into a serious military conflict with one of its neighboring countries that is our NATO ally,
do you think our country should or should not use military force to defend that country?
Should not
U.S.
37%
Canada
36
UK
37
Poland
49
48
48
53
Italy
June 7, 2019
53
47
France
MEDIAN
56%
34
Spain
Germany
Should
47
51
40
58
38
42
48
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12. U.S.-German Disagreement Over Ukraine

U.S.
Germany
%
%
Support for NATO sending arms to the
Ukrainian gov’t
46
19
+27
Support for Ukraine becoming a
NATO member
62
36
+26
Our country should use military force
to defend NATO ally against Russia
56
38
+18
Decrease economic sanctions on
Russia
10
29
-19
Support for Western countries
providing economic aid to Ukraine
62
71
-9
June 7, 2019
www.pewresearch.org
Diff
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13. U.S. Partisan Divide on What to Do about Russia-Ukraine

Democrats
Republicans
%
%
U.S. should use military force to defend
NATO ally against Russia
47
69
+22
Support for NATO sending arms to the
Ukrainian gov’t
39
60
+21
Increase economic sanctions on Russia
23
40
+17
Support for Ukraine becoming a NATO
member
59
71
+12
Russia is a major military threat to its
neighbors
56
67
+11
Russia is to blame for violence in eastern
Ukraine
39
50
+11
Support for Western countries providing
economic aid to Ukraine
60
69
+9
June 7, 2019
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Diff
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14. Russian Views

RUSSIAN VIEWS
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15. Views of Russian Economy Souring

How would you describe the current economic situation in Russia?
100%
Bad
83
76
73
64
56
50
50
44
38
32
20
13
0
2002
June 7, 2019
2007
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Good
2012
2015
15

16. Russians Blame Sanctions and Falling Oil Prices for Economic Woes

Which one of the following is causing the most harm to our economy?
33%
33
Falling oil prices
25
Current gov't econ policies
8
June 7, 2019
Western sanctions
None (VOL)/Don’t know
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17. Russians Overwhelmingly Support Putin’s Foreign and Domestic Policies

Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Vladimir Putin is handling …
Disapprove
Relations w/ China
4%
85
13
Relations w/ Ukraine
83
11
Relations w/ EU
82
14
Energy policy
73
23
Economy
June 7, 2019
90%
10
Relations w/ U.S.
Corruption
Approve
70
29
62
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18. Russian Views of Western Powers Plummet

Russian who have a favorable view of …
100 %
79
61
78
64
62
56
63
51
50
37
30
35 Germany
27
31 EU
15 U.S.
12 NATO
0
June 7, 2019
2002
2007
2011
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2013
2015
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19. Ukrainian Views

UKRAINIAN VIEWS
June 7, 2019
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20. Surveying Ukraine in 2015

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21. Western Ukrainians Increasingly Critical of Kyiv

Kyiv government is a bad influence
2014
2015
%
%
42
59
+17
West
28
54
+26
East
59
65
+6
Ukraine
Change
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
June 7, 2019
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22. Ukrainians Want Assistance from West

Do you support or oppose __ for our country?
Oppose
Getting economic aid
from Western countries
Support
17%
71%
22
Joining the EU
67
Getting arms
from NATO
32
54
Joining NATO
32
53
Joining the
Eurasian Economic 72
Union with Russia
12
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
June 7, 2019
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23. Eastern Ukrainians Favor Negotiations Over Military Force

To end the conflict in eastern Ukraine, which one of the following solutions do you think is best?
Use military force
23%
Ukraine
19%
31
West
East
Both/Neither (VOL)
13
Negotiate a settlement
47%
17
22
40
56
Note: Ukraine sample does not include Luhans’k, Donets’k and Crimea.
June 7, 2019
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24.

All Pew Research Center reports and data are
available online at www.pewresearch.org
June 7, 2019
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