англ през ЛЕНА МАША

1. Educational practice at the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation
Federal State Autonomous Educational Institution
of Higher Education
NORTHEASTERN FEDERAL UNIVERSITY NAMED AFTER M.K. AMMOSOV
Financial and Economic Institute
Educational practice at the
Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Sakha
(Yakutia)
Completed by: 3rd year students of group EAD-23
Nogovitsyna Lena Alexandrovna,
Gavrilyeva Maria Alexandrovna
Yakutsk 2025

2.

Our main goal as a team
was to automate the work
on forecasting exports of
the Republic of Sakha
Yakutia

3.

Presentation plan:
Brief overview of the Ministry of
Economy of the Republic of Sakha
(Yakutia)
Maria's individual assignment
Lena's individual assignment
Conclusion. How we presented and
what grade we received

4. Individual tasks

Maria's individual task
• creation and automation of a
consolidated predictive model for both
coal and diamonds using regression
analysis
Lena's individual assignment
• calculate and forecast the foreign trade
turnover in the main partner countries
of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

5.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE
MINISTRY OF ECONOMY OF
THE REPUBLIC OF SAKHA
(YAKUTIA)

6. Structure

200
%
* From the official website of the Ministry of Economy of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

7. Popov Peter Ivanovich

Minister of Economy of the Republic of
Sakha (Yakutia)
200
%
On October 4, 2023, by Decree of the Head
of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) No. 46,
he was appointed Minister of Economy of the
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).

8. Department of Strategic Management

Head – Alekseeva Kira Innokentievna
Mailing address: 28 Lenin ave., Yakutsk, 677000
Contact phone: 8 (4112) 39-83-46; 66025
Reception time: Wednesdays 15.00-18.00
The main tasks of the Department are:
200
%
1.
Development and improvement of the strategic planning system for the socio-economic
development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), which ensures the achievement of national
development goals and objectives of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Sakha
(Yakutia).
2.
The analysis of the current socio-economic situation in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the
Russian Federation and the definition of economic regulation methods based on it.
3.
Participation in the implementation of state policy on internal security, management in the field
of strategic planning, investment policy, and the digital economy.

9.

Maria's task: to create and
automate a consolidated
predictive model for both coal
and diamonds using regression
analysis

10. Analysis of forecasts of previous years and estimation of errors

I was provided with forecast values for exports starting in 2018. By
comparing them in detail with the actual indicators, I was unable to identify
the trend of statistical errors.
To analyze the reasons for the discrepancies, I applied the method of
expert assessments. As a result, it was found that the main factors
contributing to the deviations were:
200
%
• The volatility
diamonds).
of
world
prices
• Force majeure in logistics chains.
• Changes in exchange rates.
• Geopolitical situations.
for
key
export
commodities
(coal,

11.

200
%
an example of how to collect data for further analysis

12. Data collection and trend identification

• The next task that needed to be solved was the collection and
primary processing of up-to-date data. A single database was
created in the MS Excel environment, which included annual
export figures starting in 2018, broken down by main commodity
items (coal and diamond).
• To identify sustainable trends, a trend analysis was carried out:
dynamics diagrams were constructed and a visual and
mathematical assessment of the direction of the changes was
carried out. As a result, there was an instability in the physical
volume of diamond exports and a slight negative trend in coal raw
materials. The identified trends became the mathematical basis
for subsequent forecasting.
200
%

13.

14. Technical stage: development of a predictive model in MS Excel

The key and most difficult stage of the work was the construction of a valid
forecasting model. Based on the analysis, the linear regression method was chosen as the
most adequately reflecting the identified trend.
I have performed the following operations:
• To automate the calculations of angle data, I used the statistical functions of MS Excel
(LINEAR functions). Regression coefficients were calculated.
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%
• Based on the coefficients obtained, the final formula for the base forecast for 2026-2028
was compiled.
• The coefficients of the basic and conservative forecast data from the Mayor of the Russian
Federation were used for the conservative forecast.
• For the forecast of diamond exports, data and forecasts from ALROSA were used, adjusted
and taking into account the forecast of the dollar from the Mayor of the Russian Federation.
The model has been tested over a historical period to verify its adequacy. Later, this
template was used for the information and analytical system Situation Center of the Head of
the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

15. The result of the work:

The screenshot is taken from the information and analytical system of the
Situational Center of the Head of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

16.

Lena's task: to calculate and
forecast foreign trade turnover in
the main partner countries of the
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).

17.

Foreign trade turnover in the main partner countries of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Submitted
to the Department of Forecasting the Development of the Real Sector of the Economy of the Ministry
of Economy of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
Единица измерения
Внешнеторговый оборот
в % к предыдущему году
Экспорт товаров
в % к предыдущему году
В том числе сырьевой:
млн долл. США
млн долл. США
2023
отчет
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
2024
отчет
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
2025
оценка
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
2026 прогноз
базовый
целевой
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
2027 прогноз
базовый
целевой
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
2028 прогноз
базовый
целевой
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
алмазы (в том числе жемчуг природный или культивированный, драгоценные млн
или долл.
полудрагоценные
США
камни,
дсп драгоценные
дспметаллы, металлы,
дсп
плакированные
дсп
драгоценными
дсп
металлами,
дсп
и дсп
изделия из них;
дспбижутерия;дсп
монеты)
уголь каменный (с 2024 года данные объединены с нефтью)
в том числе в страны АТР
уголь древесный
в том числе в страны АТР
нефть (с 2024 года данные объединены с каменным углом)
В том числе несырьевой:
пиломатериалы
продукция АПК, в том числе дикоросы, алкогольные напитки, рыба
сувениры, изделия из мамонтовой фауны, бой рогов северного оленя,
меховые изделия
Экспорт услуг
Импорт
в % к предыдущему году
млн долл. США
млн тонн
млн долл. США
млн тонн
млн долл. США
млн тонн
млн долл. США
млн тонн
млн долл. США
млн тонн
млн долл. США
млн долл. США
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
млн долл. США
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
млн долл. США
млн долл. США
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
дсп
будут скрыты в
системе
архивные ланные
* дсп (данные служебного пользования)

18. Foreign trade turnover

Foreign trade turnover is the total value of
exports and imports for a certain period, measured in
monetary terms.
200 %
FTT = E + I
FTT - volume of foreign trade turnover
E - total value of exports
I - total value of imports
18

19. Conclusion

The foreign economic activity of the Republic of
Sakha (Yakutia) in 2025-2028 will be characterized by
steady growth in exports (especially coal and
diamonds) with a relatively moderate increase in
imports.
By 2028, exports will reach almost "dsp" billion
US dollars, which is "dsp" times more than imports,
ensuring a positive foreign trade balance.
200 %
Non-primary exports and exports of services
also show a gradual increase, but their share remains
significantly less than the raw materials sector.
19

20.

21. Development of formulas in Microsoft Excel for automation of calculations of foreign trade turnover

1
Formulas have been developed for automatic
recalculation of growth rates,
exports/imports, and forecast values when
the initial data changes.
2
For complex indicators (for example, with
negative dynamics), Excel functions of the
"FORECAST" type are used with condition
checking to exclude incorrect values.
3
2
1

22.

Automation was performed as part
of the preparation of a forecast of
the socio-economic development of
the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for
the Information and Analytical
system "Situation Center of the
Head of the Republic of Sakha
(Yakutia)" in the section "Foreign
economic activity of the
Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)".
200 %
22

23. conclusion

Working as a team allowed us to tackle this complex
project more effectively. We could cross-check our data,
discuss different analytical approaches, and solve
problems together. This collaborative environment was
invaluable for our learning experience.
During our internship, we not only enhanced our
technical skills in data analysis and Excel but also
gained a deep understanding of how economic policy is
shaped at the regional level.
Upon completing our research and analysis, we
prepared a joint report and presentation. The defense of
our internship took place online via Zoom, where we
presented our findings and conclusions to the committee
members. We detailed the methods we used, the challenges
we faced, and the practical results of our work.

24.

"4c"

25.

thanks for the attention!