World population and settlement

1.

World population and
settlement

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Part 1. World population overview

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How land determines societies
First civilizations on Earth. The development of society
Arable land. Most fertile regions of the world

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Ecological footprint:
the quantity of nature it takes to support people or an economy
https://www.overshootday.org/solutions/cities/
https://www.overshootday.org/solutions/energy/
https://www.overshootday.org/solutions/planet/
https://www.overshootday.org/solutions/population/
https://www.overshootday.org/solutions/food/

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Part 2. Demographic theory

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Famous demographic theories
https://courses.lumenlearning.com/alamo-sociology/chapter/readingdemographic-theories/

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Demographic evolution by steps

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Age-gender pyramids in relation to
society structure: step 1
► Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a low population growth rate due to a high birth
rate (number of annual births per one thousand people) and a high death rate (number of annual deaths per one
thousand people). In this first stage, total population is in flux as a result of these variables’ dynamic patterns, neither
being consistent from year to year. Because the birth rate and death rate are relatively equal to one another there is little
change in total population. But why are both rates high?
► There are a number of factors that can influence a country towards a high birth rate and high death rate. Historically,
high birth rates are attributed to societies that relied heavily on agricultural productivity or unskilled manual labor,
because larger families meant a larger workforce.
► A high birth rate is often the response to a high death rate as a country seeks to achieve or maintain replacement level
(total fertility rate at 2.1 births per woman). Through a deeper analysis of circumstances that lead to high death rates,
demographers often point to the rate of infant mortality and life expectancy as rubrics for determining a high or low
death rate. Infant mortality is high when medicine and maternal care are limited or insufficient, and life expectancy is
low when sanitation and public health are not adequate. Social, environmental, and political action all have severe
consequences during this stage in regards to population because the birth rate and death rate are so fragile.
► Stage 1 of the Demographic Transition Model is considered the pre-industrial stage, or pre-transition, and today no
countries are classified within Stage 1 of the DTM. This is quite a feat given that for all of human history up until the 18th
Century, all countries were considered within Stage 1.

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Age-gender pyramids in relation to
society structure: step 2
► Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM) is characterized by a rapid decrease in a country’s death rate while the birth rate remains high. As such, the total
population of a country in Stage 2 will rise because births outnumber deaths, not because the birth rate is rising. The decrease in death rate is commonly attributed to
significant improvements in overall health, specifically access to pediatric care, which affects the life expectancy of the most at-risk demographic group — children. But along
with basic healthcare, an expanded education system, gender equality, and technological advances in the areas of food production and sanitation also work to decrease the
death rate.
The transition to Stage 2 is still a relatively recent phenomenon in human history. Not until the Industrial Revolution did the first countries make the transition from Stage 1 to
Stage 2. Since the mid-20th Century most of the world’s countries have not only made it into Stage 2, but have also continued to progress to Stages 3 and 4. Still, there are
a number of countries that remain in Stage 2 of the Demographic Transition for a variety of social and economic reasons, including much of Sub-Saharan Africa, Guatemala,
Nauru, Palestine, Yemen and Afghanistan.
► Demographic Transition Model Stage 2 Case Study: Afghanistan
► In 2013, Afghanistan had one of the higher rates of natural increase (birth rate minus death rate; or net increase) in the world at 2.7% – much higher than any other central
Asian nation. Data provided from the Population Reference Bureau had the Afghan birth rate at (35/1000) and the death rate at (8/1000). What is most significant here is
that the death rate in Afghanistan is low and it continues to decline. Only a decade ago the death rate was over 20/1000, peaking around 2004. This fast reduction in the
death rate is interesting to demographers because although life expectancy has risen quickly, one of the primary indicators of a lowered death rate (child mortality) remains
high. Afghanistan currently has the highest rate of child mortality in the world, where one in ten children do not live passed the age of 5. Why then the decrease in death rate?
Overall public health has greatly improved, and even though the child mortality rate is still high it is an improvement, as is the increased access to food and sanitation that
has allowed adults to live longer. Quite remarkable for a country that has experienced so much war during the same time period.
Looking beyond the numbers of birth and death rate brings the discussion back to the Demographic Transition Model’s focus on progress. Like Afghanistan, many countries
in Stage 2 are categorized as “developing.” The rates of birth and death are both the cause and effect of social and political factors within a country. Afghanistan has
experienced decades of war both internally, and externally, and this has had significant impacts on the overall health and health care system of the country. With continued
improvement to both, the expected outcome determined by the DTM is a transition into Stage 3 where total population growth continues, but at a lower rate. The DTM does
not provide a time table for transition, but the large gap between the birth and death may signal that the country is nearing the end of Stage 2. For that transition to occur,
Afghanistan will need to address outstanding social and economic factors that lead to lower birth rates, most notably in the areas of education and the status of women.
Afghanistan has a very high illiteracy rate and limited educational opportunities for women, both indicators towards a high birth rate. Without either of those issues being
addressed, the country will remain in Stage 2, with a high rate of population growth. If the current growth rate continues the total population of Afghanistan is expected to
double in just 25 years.

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Age-gender pyramids in relation to
society structure: step 3
In Stage 3 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), death rates are low and birth rates decrease, usually as a result of improved economic conditions, an increase in women’s status
and education, and access to contraception. The decline in birth rate varies from country to country, as does the time frame in which it is experienced. Some countries go through rapid
transitions where the birth rate plummets by more than 40%, while others maintain a much more gradual decline. The rate of decline is dependent upon the economic and social factors at
play – the quicker gains are made in areas such as education and gender equality, the faster birth rates decline. Lower birth rates combined with low death rates slow the pace of total
population growth of countries within Stage 3. Though slow, total population growth will continue until birth rates are lowered to or below replacement level (total fertility rate at 2.1 births per
woman).
Education has been linked time and again to delaying women’s child bearing years, providing opportunities to women outside the home, and increasing a woman’s knowledge about
her body and her health – all of which lead to smaller family sizes and ultimately a decrease in birth rate. Additionally, women who pursue advanced education are more likely to plan for
smaller families or decide to never give birth. The combination of a shortened period for child bearing along with the ability to limit family size, whether by delay or contraception, together
lower the birth rate within a country. For some countries sex and reproductive education is new to the public discourse and as its reach expands more women become knowledgeable to
available care.
Countries making the transition to Stage 3 all have some relative stability – economic, social or political. It has been debated whether or not these factors influence birth and death rates or if
birth and death rates influence a country’s development. Regardless, stable population growth provides significant advantages for a country, offering opportunities to strengthen its economy
as a prominent number of its citizens will be in their working years. As such, Stage 3 is often viewed as a marker of significant development. Examples of Stage 3 countries are Botswana,
Colombia, India, Jamaica, Kenya, Mexico, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates, just to name a few.
Demographic Transition Model Stage 3 Case Study: Morocco
Like many countries tagged with the moniker “developing” Morocco progressed through Stages 1 and 2 of the DTM relatively quickly. After regaining its independence in 1956, Morocco
transitioned into Stage 2 (high birth rate and low death rate) and remained there until the mid-1970s at which point the fertility rate began to decline from its peak of 7.4. By 1990 that rate
was down to 3.7 and today it is around 2.7 children per woman – a substantial improvement in a very short time. This decrease in fertility rate is observed as the result of societal ideals
evolving around contraception and the status of women. Increased access to contraception and the expansion of women in the work force both have led to the steady decrease in birth rate
over the last four decades. The transition has occurred simultaneously with other demographic changes including an increased life expectancy and the movement of people from rural to
urban communities. Since the 1980s both Moroccan men and women have seen life expectancy rise almost 20 years. Death rates have too been affected by continued advances in
medicine and public health. For instance, child mortality rates have dropped tenfold since the 1970s and consistently decline annually. Still, as declining death rates were the focus in Stage
2, declining birth rates are the primary foci in Stage 3 of the DTM and the decline is greatly attributed to the increase in economic and social mobility of women.
There is no timetable for progress from Stage 3 to Stage 4. Many countries remain in Stage 3 even with fast growing economies and ever changing social dynamics. This is because
although birth rates can drop rapidly it takes even longer, if ever, for them to become on par with the country’s death rate. It takes the combination of economic, social, and political forces all
working in tandem to make the move out of Stage 3. Any barriers to continued progress will prevent movement and create stagnant countries, at least in their placement within the
Demographic Transition Model.

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Age-gender pyramids in relation to
society structure: step 4
► In Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model (DTM), birth rates and death rates are both low, stabilizing total population growth. The decline in both birth
and death rates of most Stage 4 countries have been attributed to strong economies, highly educated citizens, ample healthcare systems, the migration of
people from rural communities to cities, and expanded employment opportunities for women. As these factors play out the total fertility rate decreases until it
reaches replacement level (2.1 births per woman), at which point the country enters Stage 5. It is understood that countries in Stage 4 of the DTM have
experienced significant economic and social advances allowing for reduced family size in relation to decades prior.
► Though both the birth and the death rate are ever declining, countries in Stage 4 do house large populations – a result of progressing through Stages 1-3. With
a large population annual growth can still be significant even with a small rate of natural increase. Additionally, the decline in birth rate and death rate isn’t
always consistent, nor are both always in decline. Both rates are susceptible to outstanding circumstances such as pandemic or environmental disasters. That
being said, Stage 4 of the DTM is viewed as an ideal placement for a country because total population growth is gradual. Examples of countries in Stage 4 of
the Demographic Transition are Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of Europe, Singapore, South Korea, and the U.S.
► Demographic Transition Stage 4 Case Study: Argentina
► Since the middle of the 19th Century, Argentina has maintained a strong economy, keeping on par with Western Europe and North America. Much of the
country’s development in economic and social mobility has been steady, combining with the technological and medical advances that allow for a quite rapid
progression through Stages 1-3 of the DTM. Through industrialization cities became the epicenter of life, causing internal migration as people move from rural
to urban areas. Due to the limited space within cities, and the changing demands of work, smaller family size becomes an indirect result of urbanization.
Argentina’s transition to Stage 4 is unique when compared to the rest of South America because of how early it was accomplished – the birth rate has been in
decline since the early 1900s with the only exception being the “baby boom” post World War II.
► Today Argentina’s rate of natural increase is 1.1%. Though this figure is below replacement level the country still has a higher birth rate (19/1000) than death
rate (7/1000), so total population will still rise. But why the early decline in birth rate? The simple answer: gender equality. Argentine women have been
protected, at least in theory, by a civil code that outlaws gender discrimination since 1869. Women maintain a relatively high level of employment and
educational opportunities in relation to men. Gender equality and a high status of women are large components of lowered birth rates. And while the Argentine
government has historically been against contraception, today condoms and birth control are widely available without cost.
► Low birth rates and low death rates characterize the countries in Stage 4 of the Demographic Transition Model. Not since Stage 1 of the DTM have birth rates
and death rates been so equal in value, the main difference being that in Stage 4 total population is already high. Countries will remain categorized as Stage 4
until they reach the point where death rate exceeds birth rate, the definition of Stage 5; but there is no formula or estimate for how long that transition will take.

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Age-gender pyramids in relation to
society structure: step 5?
► What happens when the birth rate of a country declines to the point where it is lower than the death rate? Answer: entry into Stage 5 of the Demographic Transition Model
(DTM) – theoretically. In Stage 5 of the DTM a country experiences loss to the overall population as the death rate becomes higher than the birth rate. The negative
population growth rate is not an immediate effect however. Based on demographic momentum, in which total population growth increases even while birth rates decline, it will
take a generation or two before a negative population growth rate is observed.
In this scenario it is the economy that is the driving force behind further limits on family size and the use of contraception. Whether persuaded by the high costs of raising a
family in cities or the enticing opportunities of employment that delay child bearing, birth rates decline well below replacement level (2.1 children per woman). What occurs is
an aging citizenry that will eventually lead to a decrease in total population. Other explanations for declining birth rate can be linked to biological or political causes, and
consequently fertility rates differ from country to country. One of the most infamous acts associated with population planning is China’s One-Child Policy. Since its
implementation in 1979, China has not only witnessed a decline in birth rate but also a real demographic challenge: a gender imbalance, which is likely to lower the birth rate
even further. These social and political elements are not factored into the DTM equation but both have consequential impacts on total population.
In recent years a few countries, primarily in Eastern and Southern Europe, have reached a negative rate of natural increase as their death rates are higher than their birth
rates. Possible examples of Stage 5 countries are Croatia, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Japan, Portugal and Ukraine. According to the DTM each of these countries should
have negative population growth but this has not necessarily been the case. Complicating the Demographic Transition Model’s framework is the impact of migration across
national borders. Even with smaller birth rates countries are still growing because of positive net migration rates. This demographic phenomenon has muddled the expected
progression of countries along the DTM. Does a country belong in Stage 5 if it has a higher death than birth rate but does not have negative total population growth? The
debate begins here.
► Demographic Transition Model Stage 5 Case Study: Germany?
► Though ranked as the 16th most populous country in the world, Germany’s rate of natural increase is below replacement level. In 2013, the death rate (11/1000) was higher
than the birth rate (8/1000) and this was not a new trend. In fact Germany’s death rate has outpaced its birth rate annually for the last forty years. Given these statistics the
total population growth should be negative because at -.02%, the rate of natural increase is far below replacement level. Placing this data within the DTM would position
Germany within Stage 5, except for one major exception, its total population is increasing. Remarkably the impact of net migration to Germany, combined with the
generational lag time associated with demographic momentum, has kept total population from declining.
So then what part of the Demographic Transition Model holds true? Well, for starters much of Germany’s decline in birth rate can be attributed to its strong economy, respect
for gender equality and the status of women, as well as ease of access to contraceptives. Individually each of these factors has weight in limiting family size and delaying
child bearing, but simultaneously their combined impact is significant and possibly why the birth rate has been below the death rate since 1972. Germany’s muddling of the
Demographic Transition Model is unique for many reasons, but one in particular to note is the often perceived bias that the DTM was built as a Euro-centric. This still may be
valid but it is interesting that a European country is causing some of the greatest challenges to the rule.

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Population-related issues
https://info.populationmedia.org/blog/overpopulation-cause-and-effect

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Part 3. Urbanisation
:is the process through which cities grow, and higher and higher percentages
of the population comes to live in the city.

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Cities of the world: overview
Most populous cities of the world (city proper)
Most populous cities of the world (urban area)
Most populous cities of the world (metropolitan area)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_cities
Most populous agglomerations in the world:
http://www.citypopulation.de/en/world/agglomerations/

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Urbanisation-related terms
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suburbanization (urban sprawl)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Counterurbanization
Reurbanization:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reurbanisation
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305900619300637
https://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/oi/authority.20110803100417199
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Urban_planning
(check all terms in the “See also” part)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shanty_town
https://www.urbandisplacement.org/about/what-are-gentrification-and-displacement/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Garden_city_movement
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eco-cities
Other:
https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/climate-smart-agriculture
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_planned_cities

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Types of urban grids

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Urban planning models
1.
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Town-related issues
“Heat island” phenomena
Pollution (smog)
Gentrification
Slums/ghettos

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Pollution: types

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Cultural diffusion: types
Two main types of diffusion: expansion and relocation diffusion. Also, sometimes the
third type known as maladaptive diffusion is noted.
Expansion diffusion: an innovation or idea that develops in a source area and remains strong
there, while also spreading outward to other areas. This can include hierarchical, stimulus, and
contagious diffusion.
Relocation diffusion: an idea or innovation that migrates into new areas, leaving behind its origin
or source of the cultural trait.
● Hierarchical diffusion: an idea or innovation that spreads by moving from larger to smaller
places, often with little regard to the distance between places, and often influenced by social
elites.
● Contagious diffusion: an idea or innovation that spreads based on person-to-person contact
within a given population with no regard for hierarchies. HIV/AIDS first spread to urban
neighborhoods (Hierarchical diffusion) and then spread outwards (contagious diffusion)
● Stimulus diffusion: an idea or innovation that spreads based on its attachment to another
concept. Occurs when a certain idea is rejected but the underlying concept is adopted. Early
Siberian people domesticated reindeer only after exposure to the domesticated cattle raised
by cultures to their south. They had no use for cattle but the idea of domesticated herds
appealed to them, and they began domesticating reindeer, an animal they had long hunted.
Maladaptive diffusion: the adoption of diffusing traits that are not practical or reflective of a
region's environment or culture.
https://library.fiveable.me/ap-hug/unit-3/types-of-cultural-diffusion/studyguide/DAi0JEBluIVWISVGkv6g

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References:
Rubinstein, J. “The Cultural Landscape. An Introduction to Human Geography.”
Waugh, D. “Geography. Integrated Approach”: particularly
Population/Settlement/Urbanisation sections