International business management

1. International Business Management

INTERNATIONAL
BUSINESS
MANAGEMENT
Economic Risk – Economic Risk for
Developing and Emerging
Economies
Dr Michael Wynn-Williams
[email protected]

2. Economic risk analysis

ECONOMIC RISK ANALYSIS
Question : Is my money safe in that country?
Answer : Evaluate the Macro economic health of
the country
Some factors to consider :
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Exchange rates
Growth of domestic credit
bank rates
prices, WPI and CPI
industrial production
unemployment
trade , exports imports invisibles, CAD
government consumption
GDP, current and constant prices
population

3. Economic Risk Analysis (ERA)

ECONOMIC RISK ANALYSIS (ERA)
IMF uses quantitative analysis for evaluating
economies
Economic risk is present in all countries, but most
significant in developing and emerging economies
Guidelines devised at Greenwich evaluate the security
of doing business in the country
Developing and emerging countries tend to trade in a
narrow range of products and depend on cash flow
The three main measures of a country’s financial
standing:
GDP – how much is it producing?
Inflation – how well controlled?
Current Account – are the imports affordable?
The first part of compulsory Exam Question 1 uses
simple IMF-style quantitative formulas to measure
economic performance against a standard
The second part of the question identifies and
evaluates the main economic factors in order to make
a qualitative investment decision in the country

4. ERA Exam question Part I: Quantitative data

ERA EXAM QUESTION PART I:
QUANTITATIVE DATA
The first part of the question asks you to use 3
simple formulas to evaluate the economic
performance of the country
[10 marks]
The guidelines devised at the University of
Greenwich are useful in evaluating emerging
economies
Ratio
Low Risk
High Risk
GDP
6.0-10.0%
< 6.0%, >10.0%
Inflation
0-2.0%
<0.0% or >2.0%
Current
Account/GDP
>-2.0%
<-2.0%

5. Finding the data

FINDING THE DATA
Most of the data is available from the
World Bank
The
data is for all countries, not just developing
economy clients of The Bank
One piece of data, for the current
account/GDP, comes from the IMF World
Economic Outlook (WEO)
In the exam the data will comprise the World
Bank figures + CAD/GDP
The data sheet will be a Word file

6. 1. GDP Growth

1. GDP GROWTH
Question: is the economy growing at a sustainable rate?
Answer: target 2.0-3.0% developed, 6.0-10.0% emerging and
7.0-11.0% developing economies
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures everything produced
in the country regardless of nationality
Real (constant prices) GDP increases show genuine growth in
the economy
Positive, steady growth is always good but the gains may be
unevenly distributed
Undesirable GDP conditions:
High growth – rising wages, inflation, imports and interest
rates
Low growth – poor exploitation of resources, poor
competitiveness, low wealth creation
Recession – wealth destruction, hysteresis effects

7. GDP Growth around the world

GDP GROWTH AROUND THE WORLD
As more resources are brought into use the
sustainable rate of growth falls
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-5
China
United States
Ethiopia
Vietnam
United Kingdom

8. GDP Growth targets

GDP GROWTH TARGETS
Need to find a balance between a booming
economy and recession
An
overheating economy with high inflation is usually
treated with high interest rates
A recessionary economy with low inflation is usually
treated with low interest rates
Stagflation (low growth, high inflation) is a
challenging paradox!
Sustainable GDP growth target depends on the
economy
Developed
– slow and steady at 2.0-3.0%
Emerging – relatively high rate 6.0-10%
Developing – relatively very high growth 7.0-11.0%
Rate of return should match the risk

9. GDP Risk and Return for Emerging economies

GDP RISK AND RETURN FOR
EMERGING ECONOMIES
Sustainable high rates of growth as
unemployed resources are brought into the
economy – e.g. migration from countryside to
cities
GDP
Risk/Return
Recession
<3.9%
High
Low growth
4.0-5.9%
Medium
Sustainable
6.0-10.0%
Low
Boom/overheating
10.1%+
High

10. GDP Risk and Return for Other economies

GDP RISK AND RETURN FOR
OTHER ECONOMIES
Developing
GDP
Risk/Return
Recession
<4.9%
High
Low growth
5.0-6.9%
Medium
Sustainable
7.0-11.0%
Low
Boom/overheating
11.1%+
High
GDP
Risk/Return
Recession
<0.0%, 2 qrtrs
High
Low growth
0.0-1.9%
Medium
Sustainable
2.0-3.0%
Low
Boom/overheating
3.1%+
High
Developed

11. 2: Inflation – % Consumer Prices

2: INFLATION – % CONSUMER PRICES
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-10
China
United States
Ethiopia
Vietnam
United Kingdom

12. inflation

INFLATION
Question: Are prices under control?
Answer: compare the inflation with the 2.0% target
Various measures of inflation (RPI, CPI). World Bank use
GDP deflator accounting for the nominal change in GDP
i.e. reveals real GDP change
The GDP deflator is inflation for all output, not a basket
of goods
High inflation
High inflation means constant adjustment to prices
Usually necessitates high interest rates.
Debt values are eroded over time
Low inflation/Deflation
Low inflation is too narrow a target, can slip into
deflation
Deflation may require negative interest rates – tricky!
Some consumers may wait for further price reductions
Debts values increase over time

13. Inflation and Risk/return

INFLATION AND RISK/RETURN
Most central banks are targeting 2.0% CPI
inflation
Some central banks will accept overshoots
and undershoots for short periods, others
(e.g. ECB) will accept only an undershoot
On balance, 0.0-2.0% inflation is probably
considered low risk
World Bank data shows inflation as GDP
deflator
Inflation Measure
GDP deflator, annual
% change
Low Risk
0.0-2.0%
High Risk
<0.0%
>2.0%

14. 3. Current Account Deficit – CAD

3. CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT – CAD
Developing countries are often dominated by one or two
industries
It can become highly volatile as trade fluctuates
20
15
10
5
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
-5
-10
China
United Kingdom
United States
Venezuela

15. Current Account Deficit – CAD

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT – CAD
Question: how great is the short-term trade burden?
Answer: compare the current account deficit (CAD)
and the gross domestic product (GDP)
CAD itself is not a worry:
It is funded from the capital account
It may be small compared to the total assets and liabilities
It may be a sign of strong domestic growth
The capital account could be showing good foreign
investment
CAD/GDP percentage
It
should be relatively stable over the years
It should be greater than -2% (i.e. -2.1% is high risk, -1.9%
is low risk)

16. Current Account Deficit – CAD

CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT – CAD
For developing economies CAD can be a cause for
concern
Fall in investment means imports cannot be
afforded
A fall in exports creates a higher dependency on
foreign funds
A high surplus can also be cause for concern
Economic growth is dependent on demand in other
countries
Domestic consumers have less access to desirable
imports
The government needs to counter pressure on the
currency to rise in value
Risk Values
CAD/GDP
Low Risk
High Risk
>-2.0%
<-2.0%

17. Developed Country Comparison: Usa

DEVELOPED COUNTRY COMPARISON: USA
Economic Factor
Our
2013 Data
GDP
2.2%
Inflation (GDP
deflator)
1.5%
CAD/GDP
-2.4%
analysis shows that GDP growth and inflation are
both low risk
However, CAD/GDP is over the line, meaning it is
high risk. Indeed, it is never expected to be within
guidelines!
Is it realistic to say the USA is “high risk” compared
to emerging economies?

18. Criticism of the IMF Quantitative approach

CRITICISM OF THE IMF
QUANTITATIVE APPROACH
Many feel that the IMF style of analysis does
more harm than good
Criticisms:
It
is a creature of the US and Europe
It has a neo-liberal agenda for low government
spending, privatisation and debt repayment
It treats all countries the same
IMF’s defence
It
is invited by the host government
It is the last resort – everything else has failed
The worse the taste the better the medicine

19. ERA exam question Part ii: FDI investment decision

ERA EXAM QUESTION PART II:
FDI INVESTMENT DECISION
The second half of Exam Question 1 concerns
the best target for foreign direct investment
(FDI)
[15 marks]
The decision of which sector of the economy
to invest in can only be based on the
information in the datasheet.
There are three sectors to choose from:
Agriculture
Industry
Services
The FDI decision should identify and analyse
the most appropriate economic factors

20. Factors influencing FDI

FACTORS INFLUENCING FDI
The economic factors that are appropriate to
the FDI decision depend upon the nature of the
investment – it is therefore an opportunity for
creative thinking by entrepreneurs
FDI entrepreneurs need to analyse trends in the
data to uncover any new opportunities
It is also important to identify specific data that
indicates new opportunities
To help you remember the most important
factors, we have a Greenwich mnemonic:
GLIFTS

21. Greenwich mnemonic - GLIFTS

GREENWICH MNEMONIC - GLIFTS
GLIFTS is only there to help you remember – it
should not be referenced!
It will point you towards the most basic
information, but you can use any factor you
think is important
GLIFTS will give you up to 6 economic factors –
at least 5 are needed for the exam

22. Using GLIFTS

USING GLIFTS
G – GDP per capita growth rate (the trend). May
indicate a growing productivity, higher spending.
L - Life expectancy. Gives you an idea of the general
well being of the population and the degree to which
the government is looking after everyone
I – Inflation (GDP deflator): is the trend steady or out
of control? Indicates the economic competency of the
government
F – FDI, measure of how well the country is attracting
foreign investors, particularly the trend
T – Technology
S – School

23. Other interesting data…

OTHER INTERESTING DATA…
An entrepreneur will browse data looking for
items of interest
This is when your creativity reaches its peak!
Some data that might catch your eye and
deserve further consideration:
Poverty Headcount
Malnutrition
Immunisation
Boy/girl ratio in
education
Water access
Agriculture, industry,
services added value
Gross capital formation
Time to start a business
Net migration
Total debt service

24. Seminar task

SEMINAR TASK
Come prepared with your calculators.
We will be doing two sets of exercises
Working
out the ERA for an emerging country – data
sheets available in the tutorial folder
Considering the country as a candidate for investment

25. sources

SOURCES
World Bank
<http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/reports/ReportWidgetCustom.aspx?
Report_Name=CountryProfile&Id=b450fd57>
IMF (for CAD/GDP) – latest World Economic Outlook report
<http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28>
Australia CAD/GDP – Mr Wood.com.au
<http://economics.mrwood.com.au/statistics/goal/goalcadgdp.asp>
US Debt Service – Creditflowinvestor.com
<http://www.creditflowinvestor.com/FederalDebtService.htm>
IMF paper on MRR – Boorman, J. and S. Ingves (2001), Issues in Reserves
Adequacy and Management
<http://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/resad/2001/101501.pdf>
Bank of England current account information sheet
<http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2006/speech271.pdf>
IMF guide to financial terminology
<http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/eds/Eng/Guide/file6.pdf>
UN debt service ratio definition
<http://esl.jrc.it/envind/un_meths/UN_ME069.htm>