The effectiveness of international mediation efforts in water disputes: the case of rogun dam

1. The Effectiveness of International Mediation Efforts in Water Disputes: The case of Rogun Dam

College of Social Sciences
Department of Political Sciences and International Relations
The Effectiveness of International Mediation Efforts in Water
Disputes: The case of Rogun Dam
Baktybek Altynay
Thesis Proposal Defense
Spring 2017

2.

Introduction
• According to the UN report (2009), 507
number of water conflicts were
recorded over the past 50 years
• No global framework agreement in force
that regulates the use of shared water
resources
• International law offers no simple
solution to the complexities of the use of
the shared waters (Hodgson, 2010)
Global map of potential hotspots for water
(http://www.dutchwatersector.com , 2016)
• Ex: The Israel-Jordan Treaty of Peace,
Indus Water Treaty, Ganges Water Treaty
• The contributions of mediators

3.

Uzbek side convinced that Dam operations
can reduce downstream water availability
during part of the year and disrupt existing
and sensitive hydrological processes.
Video
Rogun has become an important symbol of Tajikistan’s
independence and lynchpin of Rahmon’s plans for
developing the national economy.
Rogun’s energetic production could solve electricity
shortages in Tajikistan And create new job
opportunities, reducing poverty of the population.

4. OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS AT MEDIATION

International actors: The World Bank; United Nations; Republic of
Kazakhstan ; European Union(CAREC); Human Rights Watch;
The main approaches used by EU mediators: Process Initiation, National
consultations, Regional meetings to generate joint approach and vision,
Collaborative participation in large-scale international events.
In response to a request by the Government of Tajikistan, the World Bank
supported two studies to evaluate the viability of the proposed Rogun
Hydropower Project (HPP) according to international standards: TechnoEconomic Assessment Study (TEAS) and Environmental and Social
Impact Assessment (ESIA).
Five Information-Sharing and Consultation Meeting on the Assessment Studies of
the Proposed Rogun Hydropower Project took place in Almaty ( May 2011- June
2014)

5. OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS AT MEDIATION (cont)

“Many projects have been undertaken at the purely national dealing
with irrigation, drinking water supply and national policy programs.
Suffice it to say that such projects have not been effective” (Hodgson,
2010).
The global powers preferred to keep the issues at a distance. They do
not publicly take a position even if it is the best economical and
technical issue (Central Eurasia Standard, 2013).
Technical assistance cannot solve the problem until the political will is
lacking.

6. Literature review

There is a strong case for investing more on the diplomatic side as well through
capacity and skills enhancement of diplomats and foreign offices about water
management and conflict resolution linkages (Salman, 2015).
Bekchanov (2013) recommended to develop trust among both upstream and
downstream countries and to initiate interest of Uzbekistan regarding joint sharing of
energy from Rogun (reaching win-win solution).
Valencia, (2012), Hodgson,(2010) identified factors such as political unrest, corruption,
and inefficient bureaucracies aggravating the situation between the two countries.
According to (Jalilov and DeSutter, 2011) agreement between countries can be
achieved if Uzbekistan implements reforms in the field of water use and adjusts the
irrigation requirement, or Tajikistan will share with Uzbekistan income from electricity
production
External forces are not interested in the fact that Tashkent and Dushanbe agreed on
hydropower projects (Political Review,2017)
Lemon (2016) suggests that the death of Islam Karimov, who was a main opponent of
the Rogun project, might led to achieve positive peace between the parties

7.

Signs of improving relations between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan: the resumption
of transport links and easing of visa regulations

8. Purpose statement

to find out what approaches could
contribute to the success of
international mediation efforts
to explore whether the mediators
paved the way for resolving the
dispute bilaterally

9. Research questions

Why were International efforts unsuccessful to find
solution acceptable to Tajikistan and Uzbekistan on the
issue of Rogun dam?
What international efforts were undertaken to resolve the issue of
Rogun Dam?
What were the main obstacles in finding compromise?
What factors contribute to the success of international efforts of this
kind?

10. Limitations of my proposal

Lack of availability of some data
Applications of findings to practice

11. Conceptual Framework

12. Methodology

Qualitative research: analysis of data
Water Diplomacy approaches
Case-study method explores and investigates contemporary real-life
phenomenon through detailed contextual analysis of a limited number
of events or conditions, and their relationships (Zaidah, 2007).
Indus Water Treaty

13. References

Bekchanov M, Bhaduri A, Ringler C., 2013 “Is Rogun a Silver Bullet for Water Scarcity in Central Asia?”
(Center for International Development and Environmental Research, Bonn University)
Central Eurasia Standard, (May, 2013) “The Rogun Dam: Regional Conflict and Opportunity”
Hodgson Steven(May 2010) “Strategic Water Resources in Central Asia: in search of a new international
legal order” (EU-Central Asia monitoring)
Jalilov Shokhrukh-Mirzo & DeSutte Thomas M. r and Jay A. Leitch, September 2011. “Impact of Rogun
dam on downstream Uzbekistan Agriculture” (International Journal of Water Resources and
Environmental Engineering Vol. 3(8), pp. 161-166)
Political Review (Politicheskoe obozrenie), February 2017. “Budet li novaya era v tajiksko-uzbekssikh
otnosheniyah?” http://politobzor.net/show-122264-budet-li-novaya-era-v-tadzhiksko-uzbekskihotnosheniyah.html
Salman Aneel, 2015. “Transboundary Water Governance from a Foreign Policy Lens” (Publication Series
“Regional Green Dialogs”, Islamabad)
Shafiqul Islam & Repella Amanda C., (July, 2015). “Water Diplomacy: A Negotiated Approach to Manage
Complex Water Problems” (Journal of Contemporary Water research & education issue 155, pages 1-10)
United Nations report on world water conflicts, 2009 chromeextension://ecnphlgnajanjnkcmbpancdjoidceilk/content/web/viewer.html?file=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.un
water.org%2Fdownloads%2Funw_annualreport2009.pdf
Zaidah Zainal, (9, Jun 2007). “Case study as a research method” (Faculty of Management and Human
Resource Development, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia)