Russia's Resource Crossroads

1.

Russia's Resource
Crossroads
Reporter Zubak Timofei 2025/08/05

2.

Content
Macro Forces Shaping the Sector
Competitive Arena & Internal
Profile
Strategic Marketing Response
Call to Action

3.

01
Macro Forces Shaping the Sector

4.

State Control & Sanctions Drive Pivot
The Russian resource sector, a geopolitical asset under tight state control, is being redirected
from Europe to Asia due to strategic ownership, restrictive laws, and international sanctions.
Strategic State
Control
National security considerations drive
significant state control via giants like
Rosneft and Gazprom, with the "Subsoil
Law" capping foreign ownership.
Impact of
Sanctions
Sanctions targeting energy and mining
have restricted access to Western tech
and capital, compelling a strategic "pivot
to the East" to strengthen ties with Asian
markets.
Economic
Dependence
The sector is the primary driver of the
Russian economy, contributing a
massive share of GDP, government
revenue, and exports, creating a
"resource curse" dynamic.

5.

Remote Reserves & Arctic
Route
Russia's greatest advantage is its immense resource base,
but extraction is costly due to remote locations. The melting
Arctic is opening the Northern Sea Route, a potential gamechanger for Asian exports.
Vast reserves locked in climatically harsh regions like the
Arctic and Far East.
Prohibitive extraction and transportation costs due to
remoteness and lack of infrastructure.
The Northern Sea Route offers dramatically shorter shipping
times to Asia, becoming a major logistical advantage.

6.

02
Competitive Arena & Internal Profile

7.

Industry Competition: Porter's Five
Forces
High barriers protect current players, but buyer power and substitutes are rising threats.
Threat of New
Entrants
LOW
Supplier Power
Buyer Power
LOW to MED
MED to HIGH
Rivalry Among
Competitors
MEDIUM
Threat of Substitutes
MED &
GROWING

8.

SWOT: A Sector of Contrasts
Strengths
• Unparalleled resource endowment (world's largest gas
reserves)
• Low production costs for conventional fields
• Established export infrastructure & strong technical
expertise
Opportunities
• "Pivot to Asia" to diversify export markets
• Development of the Northern Sea Route
• Investment in downstream processing & growing demand
for green-critical minerals
Weaknesses
• Technological dependence on foreign tech (a critical
vulnerability)
• Aging infrastructure and low level of domestic processing
• Economic volatility and bureaucratic hurdles
Threats
• Accelerating global energy transition reducing fossil fuel
demand
• Prolonged and expanding sanctions
• Price volatility and increased competition from other
exporters

9.

03
Strategic Marketing Response

10.

Diversify Markets: Lock in
Asia
Aggressively pursue long-term contracts and partnerships
in Asia to reduce dependence on any single market.
Secure long-term supply contracts with major Chinese and
Indian energy companies.
Co-finance the development of Eastern Siberian fields and
associated export infrastructure.
Brand Russia as a reliable swing supplier capable of
delivering both pipeline gas and flexible LNG volumes.

11.

From Raw Materials to Value-Added Products
Stop competing solely on volume. Move up the value chain by investing in processing and refining.
Raw Export
Processing
Value-Added Products
Crude Oil
Unprocessed Metals
Refineries
Petrochemical Plants
Euro-5 Gasoline
Specialized Alloys

12.

Rebrand Critical Minerals
as "Green"
Counter the "dirty commodity" stigma by repositioning key
metals as essential enablers of the low-carbon economy.
"Russian Palladium: Powering Your Clean Future"
Market nickel and palladium as vital for EV batteries and
catalysts.
Provide technical datasheets on carbon footprint per unit of
metal.
Partner with green tech companies to build credibility.

13.

Promote the Arctic
Logistics Edge
Transform a geographical challenge into a differentiating
supply-chain story with the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
Offer significantly shorter transit times to key Northeast
Asian markets compared to the Suez Canal route.
Highlight dedicated icebreaker support and state subsidies
that ensure reliable and efficient delivery.
Market the NSR as a reliable supply corridor, complete with
track-and-trace transparency for cargo.

14.

Partner to Bypass Sanctions
Mitigate the impact of technology and capital sanctions by forming strategic joint ventures
with partners from "friendly" countries.
Russia
Asian Partners
Resilient Project
Resources & Infrastructure
Capital & Technology
Reduced Risk
Structure agreements with service-of-supply clauses, insurance pools, and toll-processing to keep equipment and
capital flowing, showcasing project resilience to end-buyers.

15.

04
Call to Action

16.

The Future: Sell Value, Not
Volume
Russian resource firms must pivot from raw-volume pitches to integrated value propositions.
The window to secure premium offtake contracts in Asia is open, but narrowing.
Secure Supply
Downstream
Customization
Green-Critical Content
= Premium Value Proposition
Reliable Logistics

17.

THANK YOU
Reporter Zubak Timofei
5
2025/08/0